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Article ; Online: Alcohol and health in Russia: good news at last.

Zaridze, David

2017 Volume 390, Issue 10102, Page(s) 1616–1618

MeSH term(s)	Adolescent ; Adult ; Alcohol Drinking/history ; Alcohol Drinking/mortality ; Alcohol Drinking/prevention & control ; Alcohol-Related Disorders/history ; Alcohol-Related Disorders/mortality ; Alcohol-Related Disorders/prevention & control ; Alcoholism/history ; Alcoholism/mortality ; Alcoholism/prevention & control ; Cause of Death/trends ; Female ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Russia ; Young Adult
Language	English
Publishing date	2017-09-28
Publishing country	England
Document type	Historical Article ; Journal Article
ZDB-ID	3306-6
ISSN	1474-547X ; 0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
ISSN (online)	1474-547X
ISSN	0023-7507 ; 0140-6736
DOI	10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32387-5
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Zs.MG 94: Show issues

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Article ; Online: Thyroid cancer overdiagnosis revisited.

Zaridze, David / Maximovitch, Dimitry / Smans, Michel / Stilidi, Ivan

Cancer epidemiology

2021 Volume 74, Page(s) 102014

Abstract: Background: Evidence has accumulated showing that an increase in thyroid cancer incidence reflects overdiagnosis of clinically unimportant lesions due to the rise in the use of neck ultrasonography. In the manuscript we examine the hypothesis that the ... ...

Abstract	Background: Evidence has accumulated showing that an increase in thyroid cancer incidence reflects overdiagnosis of clinically unimportant lesions due to the rise in the use of neck ultrasonography. In the manuscript we examine the hypothesis that the rise in thyroid cancer incidence in Russia is largely caused by overdiagnosis. Materials and methods: Incidence and mortality rates of thyroid cancer for Russia overall and its administrative regions were abstracted from the statistical database of the Ministry of Health of Russia. For incidence trends, we calculated the percentage change, linear regression coefficient and p-value. The calculation of excess cases was based on expected age-specific distributions assuming that the incidence of thyroid cancer increases exponentially with age, as predicted by the multistage model of carcinogenesis. Findings: Over the study period (1989-2015) the age standardized incidence of thyroid cancer has tripled in Russian women and doubled in men. Strong support for the hypothesis that the increase in thyroid cancer incidence may be artificial is evident from age-specific incidence trends: increases in incidence in middle age but not in older ages, thereby altering the age curves from the expected exponential shape to an "inverted U" shape. The number of observed cases of thyroid cancer exceeded the expected number by 138, 325 or 70 % of all cases diagnosed with thyroid cancer. We attribute the excess cases to detection by ultrasonography clinically unimportant lesions. This is supported by a very high incidence -to-mortality ratio, low case fatality, high and growing prevalence of thyroid cancer. Conclusion: Although there is an evidence that exposure to iodine 131 (
MeSH term(s)	Aged ; Female ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Mass Screening ; Medical Overuse ; Middle Aged ; Prevalence ; Thyroid Neoplasms/diagnostic imaging ; Thyroid Neoplasms/epidemiology
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-08-20
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2508729-0
ISSN	1877-783X ; 1877-7821
ISSN (online)	1877-783X
ISSN	1877-7821
DOI	10.1016/j.canep.2021.102014
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Article ; Online: Postdiagnosis Smoking Cessation and Reduced Risk for Lung Cancer Progression and Mortality : A Prospective Cohort Study.

Sheikh, Mahdi / Mukeriya, Anush / Shangina, Oxana / Brennan, Paul / Zaridze, David

Annals of internal medicine

2021 Volume 174, Issue 9, Page(s) 1232–1239

Abstract: Background: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide, and about one half of patients with lung cancer are active smokers at diagnosis.: Objective: To determine whether quitting smoking after diagnosis of lung cancer affects the risk ...

Abstract	Background: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide, and about one half of patients with lung cancer are active smokers at diagnosis. Objective: To determine whether quitting smoking after diagnosis of lung cancer affects the risk for disease progression and mortality. Design: Prospective study of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who were recruited between 2007 and 2016 and followed annually through 2020. Setting: N.N. Blokhin National Medical Research Center of Oncology and City Clinical Oncological Hospital No. 1, Moscow, Russia. Patients: 517 current smokers who were diagnosed with early-stage (IA-IIIA) NSCLC. Measurements: Probabilities of overall survival, progression-free survival, and lung cancer Results: During an average of 7 years of follow-up, 327 (63.2%) deaths, 273 (52.8%) cancer-specific deaths, and 172 (33.7%) cases of tumor progression (local recurrence or metastasis) were recorded. The adjusted median overall survival time was 21.6 months higher among patients who had quit smoking than those who continued smoking (6.6 vs. 4.8 years, respectively; Limitation: Exposure measurements were based on self-reported questionnaires. Conclusion: Smoking cessation after diagnosis materially improved overall and progression-free survival among current smokers with early-stage lung cancer. Primary funding source: International Agency for Research on Cancer.
MeSH term(s)	Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/mortality ; Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/pathology ; Disease Progression ; Female ; Humans ; Lung Neoplasms/mortality ; Lung Neoplasms/pathology ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Neoplasm Staging ; Prospective Studies ; Risk Reduction Behavior ; Smoking Cessation/statistics & numerical data ; Survival Analysis
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-07-27
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	336-0
ISSN	1539-3704 ; 0003-4819
ISSN (online)	1539-3704
ISSN	0003-4819
DOI	10.7326/M21-0252
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Article ; Online: Smoking Cessation After Diagnosis of Kidney Cancer Is Associated With Reduced Risk of Mortality and Cancer Progression: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Sheikh, Mahdi / Mukeriya, Anush / Zahed, Hana / Feng, Xiaoshuang / Robbins, Hilary A / Shangina, Oxana / Matveev, Vsevolod / Brennan, Paul / Zaridze, David

Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology

2023 Volume 41, Issue 15, Page(s) 2747–2755

Abstract: Purpose: To investigate whether postdiagnosis smoking cessation may affect the risk of death and disease progression in patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) who smoked at the time of diagnosis.: Methods: Two hundred twelve patients with primary ... ...

Abstract	Purpose: To investigate whether postdiagnosis smoking cessation may affect the risk of death and disease progression in patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) who smoked at the time of diagnosis. Methods: Two hundred twelve patients with primary RCC were recruited between 2007 and 2016 from the Urological Department in N.N. Blokhin National Medical Research Center of Oncology, Moscow, Russia. Upon enrollment, a structured questionnaire was completed, and the patients were followed annually through 2020 to repeatedly assess their smoking status and disease progression. Survival probabilities and hazards for all-cause and cancer-specific mortality and disease progression were investigated using extended the Kaplan-Meier method, time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression, and Fine-Gray competing-risk models. Results: Patients were followed for a median of 8.2 years. During this time, 110 cases of disease progression, 100 total deaths, and 77 cancer-specific deaths were recorded. Eighty-four patients (40%) quit smoking after diagnosis. The total person-years at risk for this analysis were 748.2 for continuing smoking and 611.2 for quitting smoking periods. At 5 years of follow-up, both overall survival (85% Conclusion: Quitting smoking after RCC diagnosis may significantly improve survival and reduce the risk of disease progression and cancer mortality among patients who smoke.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Smoking Cessation ; Carcinoma, Renal Cell ; Prospective Studies ; Kidney Neoplasms ; Disease Progression ; Risk Factors
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-03-29
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	604914-x
ISSN	1527-7755 ; 0732-183X
ISSN (online)	1527-7755
ISSN	0732-183X
DOI	10.1200/JCO.22.02472
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Article ; Online: Survival and prognostic factors of early-stage non-small cell lung cancer in Central and Eastern Europe: A prospective cohort study.

Sheikh, Mahdi / Virani, Shama / Robbins, Hilary A / Foretova, Lenka / Holcatova, Ivana / Janout, Vladimir / Lissowska, Jolanta / Navratilova, Marie / Mukeriya, Anush / Ognjanovic, Miodrag / Swiatkowska, Beata / Zaridze, David / Brennan, Paul

Cancer medicine

2023 Volume 12, Issue 9, Page(s) 10563–10574

Abstract: Background: Although early diagnosis and surgical resection of the tumor have been shown to be the most important predictors of lung cancer survival, long-term survival for surgically-resected early-stage lung cancer remains poor.: Aims: In this ... ...

Abstract	Background: Although early diagnosis and surgical resection of the tumor have been shown to be the most important predictors of lung cancer survival, long-term survival for surgically-resected early-stage lung cancer remains poor. Aims: In this prospective study we aimed to investigate the survival and prognostic factors of surgically-resected early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in Central and Eastern Europe. Methods: We recruited 2052 patients with stage I-IIIA NSCLC from 9 centers in Russia, Poland, Serbia, Czech Republic, and Romania, between 2007-2016 and followed them annually through 2020. Results: During follow-up, there were 1121 deaths (including 730 cancer-specific deaths). Median survival time was 4.9 years, and the 5-year overall survival was 49.5%. In the multivariable model, mortality was increased among older individuals (HR for each 10-year increase: 1.31 [95% CI: 1.21-1.42]), males (HR:1.24 [1.04-1.49]), participants with significant weight loss (HR:1.25 [1.03-1.52]), current smokers (HR:1.30 [1.04-1.62]), alcohol drinkers (HR:1.22 [1.03-1.44]), and those with higher stage tumors (HR stage IIIA vs. I: 5.54 [4.10 - 7.48]). However, education, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD), and tumor histology were not associated with risk of death. All baseline indicators of smoking and alcohol drinking showed a dose-dependent association with the risk of cancer-specific mortality. This included pack-years of cigarettes smoked (p-trend = 0.04), quantity of smoking (p-trend = 0.008), years of smoking (p-trend = 0.010), gram-days of alcohol drank (p-trend = 0.002), frequency of drinking (p-trend = 0.006), and years of drinking (p-trend = 0.016). Conclusion: This study shows that the 5-year survival rate of surgically-resected stage I-IIIA NSCLC is still around 50% in Central and Eastern Europe. In addition to non-modifiable prognostic factors, lifetime patterns of smoking and alcohol drinking affected the risk of death and disease progression in a dose-dependent manner in this population.
MeSH term(s)	Male ; Humans ; Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/epidemiology ; Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung/surgery ; Lung Neoplasms/epidemiology ; Lung Neoplasms/surgery ; Prospective Studies ; Prognosis ; Small Cell Lung Carcinoma/pathology ; Poland ; Neoplasm Staging
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-03-23
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2659751-2
ISSN	2045-7634 ; 2045-7634
ISSN (online)	2045-7634
ISSN	2045-7634
DOI	10.1002/cam4.5791
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Article ; Online: Plasma Kidney Injury Molecule-1 for Preoperative Prediction of Renal Cell Carcinoma Versus Benign Renal Masses, and Association With Clinical Outcomes.

Xu, Wenxin / Gaborieau, Valerie / Niman, Samuel M / Mukeria, Anush / Liu, Xiaowen / Maremanda, Krishna P / Takakura, Ayumi / Zaridze, David / Freedman, Matthew L / Xie, Wanling / McDermott, David F / Choueiri, Toni K / Catalano, Paul J / Sabbisetti, Venkata / Bonventre, Joseph V / Pierorazio, Phillip M / Singla, Nirmish / Brennan, Paul / Bhatt, Rupal S

Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology

2024 , Page(s) JCO2300699

Abstract: Purpose: Both clear cell and papillary renal cell carcinomas (RCCs) overexpress kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1). We investigated whether plasma KIM-1 (pKIM-1) may be a useful risk stratification tool among patients with suspicious renal masses.: ... ...

Abstract	Purpose: Both clear cell and papillary renal cell carcinomas (RCCs) overexpress kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1). We investigated whether plasma KIM-1 (pKIM-1) may be a useful risk stratification tool among patients with suspicious renal masses. Methods: Prenephrectomy pKIM-1 was measured in two independent cohorts of patients with renal masses. Cohort 1, from the prospective K2 trial, included 162 patients found to have clear cell RCC (cases) and 162 patients with benign renal masses (controls). Cohort 2 included 247 patients with small (cT1a) renal masses from an academic biorepository, of whom 184 had RCC. We assessed the relationship between pKIM-1, surgical pathology, and clinical outcomes. Results: In Cohort 1, pKIM-1 distinguished RCC versus benign masses with area under the receiver operating curve (AUC-ROC, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.76 to 0.86]). In Cohort 2 (cT1a only), pKIM-1 distinguished RCC versus benign masses (AUC-ROC, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.67 to 0.80]) and the addition of pKIM-1 to an established nomogram for predicting malignancy improved the model AUC-ROC (0.65 [95% CI, 0.57 to 0.74] Conclusion: Among patients with renal masses, pKIM-1 is associated with malignant pathology, worse MFS, and risk of death. pKIM-1 may be useful for selecting patients with renal masses for intervention versus surveillance.
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-05-03
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	604914-x
ISSN	1527-7755 ; 0732-183X
ISSN (online)	1527-7755
ISSN	0732-183X
DOI	10.1200/JCO.23.00699
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Article ; Online: Cancer mortality among female and male workers occupationally exposed to inorganic lead in the printing industry.

Ilychova, Svetlana A / Zaridze, David G

Occupational and environmental medicine

2012 Volume 69, Issue 2, Page(s) 87–92

Abstract: Objective: Evaluation of the carcinogenicity of lead for humans has been based primarily on the results of studies on occupationally exposed men, although gender differences in lead metabolism have been reported. In addition, most of the previous ... ...

Abstract	Objective: Evaluation of the carcinogenicity of lead for humans has been based primarily on the results of studies on occupationally exposed men, although gender differences in lead metabolism have been reported. In addition, most of the previous studies have been limited by a failure to identify and control for co-exposures to other known occupational carcinogens. The present study follows an industrial cohort of workers, mostly women, with moderate lead exposure and no confounding by other occupational exposures. Methods: Workers, employed at least 2 years between 1950 and 1978 in manual and mechanical (linotype) typesetting and type foundries in 27 printing plants in Moscow, were included in the cohort, which comprised 1423 men and 3102 women. The cohort was followed up during 1979-2003 and contributed 93,682 person-years of observation. Follow-up was 97.7% complete. Standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and 95% CIs, based on mortality rates of the Moscow general population and adjusted for gender, age and calendar time, were calculated for the total cohort as well as subcohorts stratified by various exposure parameters. Results: Among women, mortality from all causes, circulatory diseases and all cancers combined was lower than that in the Moscow general population and was similar across work groups. Among men, there was excess overall mortality, mainly due to increased mortality from ischaemic heart disease. For both sexes, no significant excess risk for any cancer site was observed, although some dose-response patterns were found. In the overall cohort, mortality from cancers of the kidney and pancreas increased up to twofold in the highest tertile of cumulative lead exposure based on duration and a relative ranking of the three subcohorts (9 deaths; SMR=2.12, 95% CI 1.10 to 4.07) and (18 deaths; SMR=2.32, 95% CI 1.46 to 3.68), respectively. Similar mortality trends for these two cancers were found in analyses by gender. Conclusions: Consistencies by sex and exposure level make a strong case for a link between exposure to inorganic lead and cancers of the kidney and pancreas.
MeSH term(s)	Cardiovascular Diseases/mortality ; Cause of Death ; Cohort Studies ; Female ; Follow-Up Studies ; Humans ; Kidney Neoplasms/chemically induced ; Kidney Neoplasms/mortality ; Lead/adverse effects ; Male ; Metals, Heavy/adverse effects ; Moscow/epidemiology ; Occupational Diseases/chemically induced ; Occupational Diseases/mortality ; Occupational Exposure/adverse effects ; Occupations ; Pancreatic Neoplasms/chemically induced ; Pancreatic Neoplasms/mortality ; Printing ; Publishing ; Sex Factors
Chemical Substances	Metals, Heavy ; Lead (2P299V784P)
Language	English
Publishing date	2012-02
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1180733-7
ISSN	1470-7926 ; 1351-0711
ISSN (online)	1470-7926
ISSN	1351-0711
DOI	10.1136/oem.2011.065201
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Article ; Online: Leisure-time physical activity and gastric cancer risk: A pooled study within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project.

Mariani, Marco / Pastorino, Roberta / Pires Marafon, Denise / Johnson, Ken C / Hu, Jinfu / Molina de la Torre, Antonio Jose / Fernández-Tardón, Guillermo / Zaridze, David / Maximovich, Dmitry / Negri, Eva / La Vecchia, Carlo / Zhang, Zuo-Feng / Kurtz, Robert C / Pelucchi, Claudio / Rota, Matteo / Boccia, Stefania

PloS one

2023 Volume 18, Issue 7, Page(s) e0286958

Abstract: Background: Although physical activity (PA) has been recognized as a favourable factor in the prevention of various diseases, including certain forms of cancer, the relationship between PA and gastric cancer (GC) is not yet fully understood. This study ... ...

Abstract	Background: Although physical activity (PA) has been recognized as a favourable factor in the prevention of various diseases, including certain forms of cancer, the relationship between PA and gastric cancer (GC) is not yet fully understood. This study aims to provide data from a pooled analysis of case-control studies within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project to estimate the association between leisure-time PA and the occurrence of GC. Methods: Six case-control studies from StoP project collected data on leisure-time PA, for a total of 2,343 cases and 8,614 controls. Subjects were classified into three leisure-time PA categories, either none/low, intermediate or high, based on study-specific tertiles. We used a two-stage approach. Firstly, we applied multivariable logistic regression models to obtain study-specific odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) then, we used a random-effect models to obtain pooled effect estimates. We performed stratified analyses according to demographic, lifestyle and clinical covariates. Results: The meta-analysis showed ORs of GC with no significant differences between intermediate vs low and high vs low PA level (OR 1.05 [95%CI 0.76-1.45]; OR 1.23 [95%CI 0.78-1.94], respectively). GC risk estimates did not strongly differ across strata of selected covariates except for age ≤ 55 years old (high vs low level: OR 0.72 [95%CI 0.55-0.94]) and for control population-based studies (high vs low level: OR 0.79 [95%CI 0.68-0.93]). Conclusions: No association was found between leisure time PA and GC, apart from a slight suggestion of decreased risk below age 55 and in control population-based studies. These results may reflect specific characteristics of GC at a younger age, or the presence of a cohort effect mediating and interacting with socioeconomic determinants of GC The different distribution of PA levels among hospitalized controls could have led to an underestimated effect of PA on GC risk.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Middle Aged ; Stomach Neoplasms/epidemiology ; Motor Activity ; Exercise ; Leisure Activities
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-07-12
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Meta-Analysis ; Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2267670-3
ISSN	1932-6203 ; 1932-6203
ISSN (online)	1932-6203
ISSN	1932-6203
DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0286958
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Article ; Online: Dietary intake of vitamin C and gastric cancer: a pooled analysis within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project.

Sassano, Michele / Seyyedsalehi, Monireh Sadat / Collatuzzo, Giulia / Pelucchi, Claudio / Bonzi, Rossella / Ferraroni, Monica / Palli, Domenico / Yu, Guo-Pei / Zhang, Zuo-Feng / López-Carrillo, Lizbeth / Lunet, Nuno / Morais, Samantha / Zaridze, David / Maximovich, Dmitry / Martín, Vicente / Castano-Vinyals, Gemma / Vioque, Jesús / González-Palacios, Sandra / Ward, Mary H /

Malekzadeh, Reza / Pakseresht, Mohammadreza / Hernández-Ramirez, Raul Ulises / López-Cervantes, Malaquias / Negri, Eva / Turati, Federica / Rabkin, Charles S / Tsugane, Shoichiro / Hidaka, Akihisa / Lagiou, Areti / Lagiou, Pagona / Camargo, M Constanza / Curado, Maria Paula / Boccia, Stefania / La Vecchia, Carlo / Boffetta, Paolo

Gastric cancer : official journal of the International Gastric Cancer Association and the Japanese Gastric Cancer Association

2024 Volume 27, Issue 3, Page(s) 461–472

Abstract: Background: Previous studies suggest that dietary vitamin C is inversely associated with gastric cancer (GC), but most of them did not consider intake of fruit and vegetables. Thus, we aimed to evaluate this association within the Stomach cancer Pooling ...

Abstract	Background: Previous studies suggest that dietary vitamin C is inversely associated with gastric cancer (GC), but most of them did not consider intake of fruit and vegetables. Thus, we aimed to evaluate this association within the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project, a consortium of epidemiological studies on GC. Methods: Fourteen case-control studies were included in the analysis (5362 cases, 11,497 controls). We estimated odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between dietary intake of vitamin C and GC, adjusted for relevant confounders and for intake of fruit and vegetables. The dose-response relationship was evaluated using mixed-effects logistic models with second-order fractional polynomials. Results: Individuals in the highest quartile of dietary vitamin C intake had reduced odds of GC compared with those in the lowest quartile (OR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.58, 0.72). Additional adjustment for fruit and vegetables intake led to an OR of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.73, 0.98). A significant inverse association was observed for noncardia GC, as well as for both intestinal and diffuse types of the disease. The results of the dose-response analysis showed decreasing ORs of GC up to 150-200 mg/day of vitamin C (OR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.41, 0.71), whereas ORs for higher intakes were close to 1.0. Conclusions: The findings of our pooled study suggest that vitamin C is inversely associated with GC, with a potentially beneficial effect also for intakes above the currently recommended daily intake (90 mg for men and 75 mg for women).
MeSH term(s)	Male ; Humans ; Female ; Ascorbic Acid ; Stomach Neoplasms/prevention & control ; Diet ; Fruit ; Vegetables ; Case-Control Studies ; Eating ; Risk Factors
Chemical Substances	Ascorbic Acid (PQ6CK8PD0R)
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-03-04
Publishing country	Japan
Document type	Meta-Analysis ; Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1463526-4
ISSN	1436-3305 ; 1436-3291
ISSN (online)	1436-3305
ISSN	1436-3291
DOI	10.1007/s10120-024-01476-8
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Article ; Online: Preventable fractions of cervical cancer via effective screening in six Baltic, central, and eastern European countries 2017-40: a population-based study.

Vaccarella, Salvatore / Franceschi, Silvia / Zaridze, David / Poljak, Mario / Veerus, Piret / Plummer, Martyn / Bray, Freddie

The Lancet. Oncology

2016 Volume 17, Issue 10, Page(s) 1445–1452

Abstract: Background: Cervical cancer incidence remains high in several Baltic, central, and eastern European (BCEE) countries, mainly as a result of a historical absence of effective screening programmes. As a catalyst for action, we aimed to estimate the number ...

Abstract	Background: Cervical cancer incidence remains high in several Baltic, central, and eastern European (BCEE) countries, mainly as a result of a historical absence of effective screening programmes. As a catalyst for action, we aimed to estimate the number of women who could be spared from cervical cancer across six countries in the region during the next 25 years, if effective screening interventions were introduced. Methods: In this population-based study, we applied age-period-cohort models with spline functions within a Bayesian framework to incidence data from six BCEE countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Bulgaria, and Russia) to develop projections of the future number of new cases of cervical cancer from 2017 to 2040 based on two future scenarios: continued absence of screening (scenario A) versus the introduction of effective screening from 2017 onwards (scenario B). The timespan of available data varied from 16 years in Bulgaria to 40 years in Estonia. Projected rates up to 2040 were obtained in scenario A by extrapolating cohort-specific trends, a marker of changing risk of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, assuming a continued absence of effective screening in future years. Scenario B added the effect of gradual introduction of screening in each country, under the assumption period effects would be equivalent to the decreasing trend by calendar year seen in Denmark (our comparator country) since the progressive regional introduction of screening from the late 1960s. Findings: According to scenario A, projected incidence rates will continue to increase substantially in many BCEE countries. Very high age-standardised rates of cervical cancer are predicted in Lithuania, Latvia, Belarus, and Estonia (up to 88 cases per 100 000). According to scenario B, the beneficial effects of effective screening will increase progressively over time, leading to a 50-60% reduction of the projected incidence rates by around 2040, resulting in the prevention of cervical cancer in 1500 women in Estonia and more than 150 000 women in Russia. The immediate launch of effective screening programmes could prevent almost 180 000 new cervical cancer diagnoses in a 25-year period in the six BCEE countries studied. Interpretation: Based on our findings, there is a clear need to begin cervical screening in these six countries as soon as possible to reduce the high and increasing incidence of cervical cancer over the next decades. Funding: None.
MeSH term(s)	Adult ; Aged ; Early Detection of Cancer ; Europe, Eastern ; Female ; Humans ; Middle Aged ; Papillomavirus Vaccines/immunology ; Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/diagnosis ; Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/epidemiology ; Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/prevention & control ; Vaccination
Chemical Substances	Papillomavirus Vaccines
Language	English
Publishing date	2016-08-23
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2049730-1
ISSN	1474-5488 ; 1470-2045
ISSN (online)	1474-5488
ISSN	1470-2045
DOI	10.1016/S1470-2045(16)30275-3
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Zs.A 5696: Show issues			Location: Je nach Verfügbarkeit (siehe Angabe bei Bestand) bis Jg. 1994: Bestellungen von Artikeln über das Online-Bestellformular Jg. 1995 - 2021: Lesesall (2.OG) ab Jg. 2022: Lesesaal (EG)
Zs.MO 460: Show issues

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