Article ; Online: Interdependent program evaluation: Geographic and social spillovers in COVID-19 closures and reopenings in the United States.
2021 Volume 7, Issue 31
Abstract: In an interconnected world, understanding policy spillovers is essential. We propose a program evaluation framework to measure policy spillover effects and apply that framework to study the governmental responses to COVID-19 in the United States. Our ... ...
Abstract | In an interconnected world, understanding policy spillovers is essential. We propose a program evaluation framework to measure policy spillover effects and apply that framework to study the governmental responses to COVID-19 in the United States. Our analysis suggests the presence of social spillovers. We estimate that while state closures directly reduced mobility by 3 to 4%, all other states locking down further decreased mobility in the focal state by 8 to 14%. Similarly, while reopening directly increased mobility by 2 to 3%, all other states' reopening increased mobility in the focal state by 12 to 21%. Our analysis also suggests geographic spillovers: Travel from locked down origins to open destinations increased by 12 to 29%. In contrast, travel from reopened origins to locked down destinations decreased by 6 to 7% for nearby counties and by 14 to 18% for distant counties. Despite its limitations, we believe that our approach takes the first steps toward creating a framework for interdependent program evaluation across policy domains. |
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Language | English |
Publishing date | 2021-07-28 |
Publishing country | United States |
Document type | Journal Article |
ZDB-ID | 2810933-8 |
ISSN | 2375-2548 ; 2375-2548 |
ISSN (online) | 2375-2548 |
ISSN | 2375-2548 |
DOI | 10.1126/sciadv.abe7733 |
Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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