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Article ; Online: An Improved Future Land-Use Simulation Model with Dynamically Nested Ecological Spatial Constraints

Chaoxu Luan / Renzhi Liu / Jing Sun / Shangren Su / Zhenyao Shen

Remote Sensing, Vol 15, Iss 2921, p

2023 Volume 2921

Abstract: A land-use simulation model oriented toward ecological constraints is effective for evaluating the ecological impact of urban spatial planning. However, few studies have incorporated dynamically nested ecological spatial constraints into the model or ... ...

Abstract	A land-use simulation model oriented toward ecological constraints is effective for evaluating the ecological impact of urban spatial planning. However, few studies have incorporated dynamically nested ecological spatial constraints into the model or fully considered the urban development, agricultural production, and ecological function among the ecological spatial constraints. Therefore, this study developed an improved land-use simulation model with dynamically nested ecological spatial constraints (LSDNE). We fully considered the multilevel ecological spatial constraints from the perspectives of ecological (ecological protection red line, EPRL), production (capital farmland, CF), and living (urban development land-use suitability, UDLS). Five scenarios in terms of future land-use distribution in 2030 were set, namely, inertial development (S1), considering EPRL (S2), considering CF (S3), considering EPRL and CF (S4), and considering EPRL, CF, and UDLS (S5). This new approach was implemented in the rapidly developing provincial capital city of Changchun, China. The results show that, due to the occupation of arable land, Changchun had the largest increase in built-up land (2019.75 km 2 to 3036.36 km 2 ) from 2010 to 2020. Terrain elevation was the most significant factor in all kinds of land expansion. According to future land spatial distribution results in 2030, under S4, Changchun’s built-up land will be more compact compared with S1–S3 and S5, which showed more scattered built-up land. These predicted results show that Changchun’s spatial planning put forward high requirements for the efficient use of land and constraints in red-line areas. Due to a clear evaluation of the impact of ecological spatial constraints on future land expansion, the LSDNE model provides more accurate support for the efficient use of land resources and future territorial spatial planning.
Keywords	land-use simulation ; cellular automata ; driving factors of land expansion ; multilevel ecological spatial constraints ; Changchun City ; Science ; Q
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-06-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	MDPI AG
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Synergistic effect of drought and rainfall events of different patterns on watershed systems

Jiali Qiu / Zhenyao Shen / Guoyong Leng / Guoyuan Wei

Scientific Reports, Vol 11, Iss 1, Pp 1-

2021 Volume 18

Abstract: Abstract The increase in extreme climate events such as flooding and droughts predicted by the general circulation models (GCMs) is expected to significantly affect hydrological processes, erosive dynamics, and their associated nonpoint source (NPS) ... ...

Abstract	Abstract The increase in extreme climate events such as flooding and droughts predicted by the general circulation models (GCMs) is expected to significantly affect hydrological processes, erosive dynamics, and their associated nonpoint source (NPS) pollution, resulting in a major challenge to water availability for human life and ecosystems. Using the Hydrological Simulation Program–Fortran model, we evaluated the synergistic effects of droughts and rainfall events on hydrology and water quality in an upstream catchment of the Miyun Reservoir based on the outputs of five GCMs. It showed substantial increases in air temperature, precipitation intensity, frequency of heavy rains and rainstorms, and drought duration, as well as sediment and nutrient loads in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Sustained droughts followed by intense precipitation could cause complex interactions and mobilize accumulated sediment, nutrients and other pollutants into surface water that pose substantial risks to the drinking water security, with the comprehensive effects of soil water content, antecedent drought duration, precipitation amount and intensity, and other climate characteristics, although the effects varied greatly under different rainfall patterns. The Methods and findings of this study evidence the synergistic impacts of droughts and heavy rainfall on watershed system and the significant effects of initial soil moisture conditions on water quantity and quality, and help to guide a robust adaptive management system for future drinking water supply.
Keywords	Medicine ; R ; Science ; Q
Subject code	910
Language	English
Publishing date	2021-09-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Nature Portfolio
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Bayesian model averaging of the RegCM temperature projections

Tangnyu Song / Guohe Huang / Guoqing Wang / Yongping Li / Xiuquan Wang / Chen Lu / Zhenyao Shen

Journal of Water and Climate Change, Vol 13, Iss 2, Pp 771-

a Canadian case study

2022 Volume 785

Abstract: The choices of physical schemes coupled in the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4), the input general circulation model (GCM) results, and the emission scenarios may cause considerable uncertainties in future temperature projections. Therefore, the ...

Abstract	The choices of physical schemes coupled in the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4), the input general circulation model (GCM) results, and the emission scenarios may cause considerable uncertainties in future temperature projections. Therefore, the ensemble approach, which can be used to reflect these uncertainties, is highly desired. In this study, the probabilistic projections for future temperature are generated at 88 Canadian climate stations based on the developed RegCM4 ensemble and obtained Bayesian model averaging (BMA) weights. The BMA weights indicate that the RegCM4 coupled with the holtslag PBL scheme driven by the HadGEM can provide relatively reliable temperature projections at most climate stations. It is also suggested that the BMA approach is effective in simulating temperature over middle and eastern Canada through taking advantage of each ensemble member. However, the effectiveness of the BMA method is limited when all the models in the ensemble cannot simulate the temperature robustly. The projected results demonstrate that the temperature will increase continuously in the future, while the temperature increase under RCP8.5 will be significantly larger than that under RCP4.5. HIGHLIGHTS The RegCM simulations coupled with different PBL schemes driven by multiple GCMs have been conducted.; The probabilistic projections for future temperature are generated at climate stations over Canada through the Bayesian model averaging method.; The temperature will increase continuously in the future, and the temperature increase under RCP8.5 scenario would be significantly larger than that under RCP4.5 scenario.;
Keywords	bma ; canada ; ensemble projections ; regcm ; temperature ; Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering ; TD1-1066 ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-02-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	IWA Publishing
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Mapping Water, Energy and Carbon Footprints Along Urban Agglomeration Supply Chains

Yakui Ding / Yongping Li / Heran Zheng / Yuan Ma / Guohe Huang / Yanfeng Li / Zhenyao Shen

Earth's Future, Vol 10, Iss 4, Pp n/a-n/a (2022)

2022

Abstract: Abstract China's urban population will increase by 268 million from 2010 to 2030, with the consumption of a large number of resource‐intensive products. Quantitative analysis of the environmental impacts (water, energy and carbon) of urban agglomerations ...

Abstract	Abstract China's urban population will increase by 268 million from 2010 to 2030, with the consumption of a large number of resource‐intensive products. Quantitative analysis of the environmental impacts (water, energy and carbon) of urban agglomerations can make trade‐offs among water conservation, energy use, climate change mitigation, and urban development. In this study, a multi‐layer water‐energy‐carbon production path analysis (MWPPA) model is developed for identifying the key final demands, sectors and supply chain paths of the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration (PUA). Results show that, water, energy and carbon‐emission intensities respectively reduced by 27.3%, 35.6% and 27.6% in 2015, compared to the levels in 2012. More than half of the water‐energy‐carbon (WEC) footprints are export‐driven, where Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Foshan dominate the WEC footprints of PUA. Results also disclose that Shenzhen is the main recipient of water‐energy, while Jiangmen and Huizhou are the main providers of water and energy, respectively. Policy makers are suggested that each industry actively integrate into global value chains in order to leverage its comparative advantage, and Huizhou should take full advantage of its fossil base to form a complete industry chain from the R&D end to the production end around the energy industry.
Keywords	multi‐regional input‐output analysis ; multi‐perspective ; Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration ; structural path ; supply chain path ; water‐energy‐carbon footprints ; Environmental sciences ; GE1-350 ; Ecology ; QH540-549.5
Subject code	333
Language	English
Publishing date	2022-04-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	Wiley
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: Temporal and spatial scaling effects of parameter sensitivity in relation to non-point source pollution simulation

Chen, Lei / Shibo Chen / Shuang Li / Zhenyao Shen

Journal of hydrology. 2019 Apr., v. 571

2019

Abstract: Scale represents an important concept in all scientific disciplines, but the scaling effect related to non-point source (NPS) pollution simulation and sensitivity parameters has not yet been reported. In this study, the sliding window, the Fourier ... ...

Abstract	Scale represents an important concept in all scientific disciplines, but the scaling effect related to non-point source (NPS) pollution simulation and sensitivity parameters has not yet been reported. In this study, the sliding window, the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test and the nested watershed idea were used with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to explore the temporal and spatial scaling effects of parameter sensitivity in a typical watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China. The results indicated that a great scaling effect could be observed at varying spatio-temporal scales, while the scaling effect would be transferred and amplified from the hydrological modelling to the NPS simulation. Soil properties such as SOL_K and SOL_BD were identified as key parameters under smaller spatial and temporal scales, while channel-related parameters in terms of ALPHA_BF, CH_K and CH_N showed greater sensitivity at larger scales. Specifically, some parameters, such as CH_N, USLE_K, USLE_P and ERORGP, were always identified as key sensitive parameters for the sediment and NPS-TP simulations, but some parameters, such as CH_K, showed sensitivity only above a specific spatial scale (778 km2 in this study). These results could be used as a reference for studying the scaling effect of model parameter sensitivity and provide important information for model construction and the management of NPS pollution at different scales.
Keywords	nonpoint source pollution ; sediments ; Soil and Water Assessment Tool model ; soil properties ; water reservoirs ; watersheds ; China
Language	English
Dates of publication	2019-04
Size	p. 36-49.
Publishing place	Elsevier B.V.
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	1473173-3
ISSN	0022-1694
ISSN	0022-1694
DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.01.045
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article ; Online: Scaling Effects of Elevation Data on Urban Nonpoint Source Pollution Simulations

Ying Dai / Lei Chen / Pu Zhang / Yuechen Xiao / Zhenyao Shen

Entropy, Vol 21, Iss 1, p

2019 Volume 53

Abstract: The scale effects of digital elevation models (DEM) on hydrology and nonpoint source (NPS) pollution simulations have been widely reported for natural watersheds but seldom studied for urban catchments. In this study, the scale effect of DEM data on the ... ...

Abstract	The scale effects of digital elevation models (DEM) on hydrology and nonpoint source (NPS) pollution simulations have been widely reported for natural watersheds but seldom studied for urban catchments. In this study, the scale effect of DEM data on the rainfall-runoff and NPS pollution was studied in a typical urban catchment in China. Models were constructed based on the DEM data of nine different resolutions. The conventional model performance indicators and the information entropy method were applied together to evaluate the scale effects. Based on the results, scaling effects and a resolution threshold of DEM data exist for urban NPS pollution simulations. Compared with natural watersheds, the urban NPS pollution simulations were primarily affected by the local terrain due to the overall flat terrain and dense sewer inlet distribution. The overland process simulation responded more sensitively than the catchment outlet, showing prolonged times of concentration for impervious areas with decreasing DEM resolution. The diverse spatial distributions and accumulation magnitudes of pollutants could lead to different simulation responses to scaling effects. This paper provides information about the specific characteristics of the scale effects of DEM data in a typical urban catchment, and these results can be extrapolated to other similar catchments as a reference for data collection.
Keywords	DEM data ; scale effect ; urban pollution ; nonpoint source pollution ; information entropy ; Science ; Q ; Astrophysics ; QB460-466 ; Physics ; QC1-999
Subject code	910
Language	English
Publishing date	2019-01-01T00:00:00Z
Publisher	MDPI AG
Document type	Article ; Online
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article: Exploring effective best management practices in the Miyun reservoir watershed, China

Qiu, Jiali / Maoyi Huang / Xuesong Zhang / Zhenyao Shen

Elsevier B.V. Ecological engineering. 2018 Nov., v. 123

2018

Abstract: Miyun reservoir watershed is a major source of drinking water for China’s capital, Beijing, which has a population of 21.75 million. Recently, the capacity of the Miyun reservoir to supply clean drinking water has been threatened by increasing ... ...

Abstract	Miyun reservoir watershed is a major source of drinking water for China’s capital, Beijing, which has a population of 21.75 million. Recently, the capacity of the Miyun reservoir to supply clean drinking water has been threatened by increasing eutrophication (or algae bloom), mainly due to the discharge of wastewater and excessive fertilization application in the upstream watershed. Therefore, there is an urgent need to design effective best management practices (BMPs) to reduce upstream nutrient load and improve water quality in the Miyun reservoir. In this study, we built a watershed model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for the Miyun Reservoir Watershed (MRW) and calibrated and validated it using long-term sediment, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) data. Furthermore, we developed a Markov Chain based multi-objective optimization program to explore optimal BMPs with tradeoffs between economic costs and water quality responses. Using the watershed model and multi-objective optimization algorithms, we explored the potential effectiveness of BMPs under two scenarios that are currently being considered. Scenario 1 assumes that funding for BMP implementation comes from national grants and targets high water quality standards, whereas scenario 2 assumes funding is provided by farmers and targets water quality that meet the drinking water standards. We found substantial discrepancies between the two scenarios with respect to the types and spatial configurations of BMPs and associated economic costs, highlighting the need to reconcile concerns from different stakeholders in order to arrive at a BMP plan that all parties will agree upon. In addition, we found that cross-subwatershed coordination and targeting flood season instead of year-round water quality standards could pronouncedly reduce the economic costs of BMP implementations without substantially degrading water quality. The watershed scale optimization method developed here holds promise to serve as an effective tool to explore tradeoffs between economic costs, water quality improvements, and decision makers’ and stakeholders’ concerns in BMP design, thereby informing sustainable watershed scale water resources management and ecosystem maintenance.
Keywords	algorithms ; best management practices ; capital ; decision making ; drinking water ; economic costs ; ecosystems ; eutrophication ; farmers ; grants ; Markov chain ; nitrogen ; phosphorus ; pollution load ; sediments ; Soil and Water Assessment Tool model ; stakeholders ; system optimization ; wastewater ; water management ; water quality ; water quality standards ; watersheds ; China
Language	English
Dates of publication	2018-11
Size	p. 30-42.
Publishing place	Elsevier B.V.
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	1127407-4
ISSN	0925-8574
ISSN	0925-8574
DOI	10.1016/j.ecoleng.2018.08.020
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article: Source identification and impact of landscape pattern on riverine nitrogen pollution in a typical urbanized watershed, Beijing, China

Liu, Jin / Tiezhu Yan / Yucong Yang / Zhenyao Shen

Science of the total environment. 2018 July 01, v. 628-629

2018

Abstract: This study explored the sources of nitrate and the impact of landscape pattern on nitrogen pollution in the highly urbanized Beiyun River Watershed, China during 2016 by applying a dual stable isotope approach (δ15N-NO3−and δ18O-NO3−) combined with ... ...

Abstract	This study explored the sources of nitrate and the impact of landscape pattern on nitrogen pollution in the highly urbanized Beiyun River Watershed, China during 2016 by applying a dual stable isotope approach (δ15N-NO3−and δ18O-NO3−) combined with multiple statistical analyses. The sources of riverine nitrate principally originated from manure and sewage, nitrification of soil nitrogen, fertilizer nitrification, and atmospheric deposition. A Bayesian model was used to estimate the source contributions and results showed that manure and sewage were the major contributors to river nitrate with combined proportions of 77.59% and 89.57% in the rainy season and the dry season, respectively. Results from multiple stepwise regression indicated that the typical artificial land use types and landscape configuration metrics reflecting landscape fragmentation related well with riverine nitrogen variables for different seasons (R2>0.6). Industrial land, unused land and patch density of built-up land and road were positively correlated with riverine nitrogen over seasons, whereas the interspersion and juxtaposition index of forest land was negatively related with nitrate. Regulating built-up land and unused land, connecting forest land with other land use types and diminishing discharges of industrial and domestic wastewater would be effective ways to improve urban river water quality.
Keywords	atmospheric deposition ; Bayesian theory ; correlation ; dry season ; fertilizers ; habitat fragmentation ; industrial sites ; land use ; landscapes ; municipal wastewater ; nitrates ; nitrification ; nitrogen ; pollution ; river water ; rivers ; sewage ; soil ; stable isotopes ; urbanization ; water quality ; watersheds ; wet season ; China
Language	English
Dates of publication	2018-0701
Size	p. 1296-1307.
Publishing place	Elsevier B.V.
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	121506-1
ISSN	1879-1026 ; 0048-9697
ISSN (online)	1879-1026
ISSN	0048-9697
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.161
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article: Impacts of urbanization on regional nonpoint source pollution: case study for Beijing, China

Zhi, Xiaosha / Lei Chen / Zhenyao Shen

Environmental science and pollution research international. 2018 Apr., v. 25, no. 10

2018

Abstract: Due to limits on available data, the effects of urban sprawl on regional nonpoint source pollution (NPS) have not been investigated over long time periods. In this paper, the characteristics of urban sprawl from 1999 to 2014 in Beijing were explored by ... ...

Abstract	Due to limits on available data, the effects of urban sprawl on regional nonpoint source pollution (NPS) have not been investigated over long time periods. In this paper, the characteristics of urban sprawl from 1999 to 2014 in Beijing were explored by analyzing historical land-use data. The Event Mean Concentration data have been collected from all available references, which were used to estimate the variation in urban NPSs. Moreover, the impacts of variation in urban sprawl on regional NPSs were qualified. The results indicated that the urbanization process showed different influences on pollutants, while COD and TN were identified as key NPS pollutants. Residential areas contributed more NPS pollutants than did roads, which played a tremendous role in the control of urban NPS. The results also suggested in part that the impact of urban sprawl on the variation of COD decreased while TN increased in Beijing during the study period. These results would provide insight into the impacts of urban sprawl on NPS variation over a long period, as well as the reference for reasonable urban planning directives.
Keywords	case studies ; chemical oxygen demand ; land use ; nonpoint source pollution ; pollutants ; residential areas ; roads ; urban planning ; urbanization ; China
Language	English
Dates of publication	2018-04
Size	p. 9849-9860.
Publishing place	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	1178791-0
ISSN	1614-7499 ; 0944-1344
ISSN (online)	1614-7499
ISSN	0944-1344
DOI	10.1007/s11356-017-1153-1
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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Article: Effects of the spatial resolution of urban drainage data on nonpoint source pollution prediction

Dai, Ying / Lei Chen / Xiaoshu Hou / Zhenyao Shen

Environmental science and pollution research international. 2018 May, v. 25, no. 15

2018

Abstract: Detailed urban drainage data are important for urban nonpoint source (NPS) pollution prediction. However, the difficulties in collecting complete pipeline data usually interfere with urban NPS pollution studies, especially in large-scale study areas. In ... ...

Abstract	Detailed urban drainage data are important for urban nonpoint source (NPS) pollution prediction. However, the difficulties in collecting complete pipeline data usually interfere with urban NPS pollution studies, especially in large-scale study areas. In this study, NPS pollution models were constructed for a typical urban catchment using the SWMM, based on five drainage datasets with different resolution levels. The influence of the data resolution on the simulation results was examined. The calibration and validation results of the higher-resolution (HR) model indicated a satisfactory model performance with relatively detailed drainage data. However, the performances of the parameter-regionalized lower-resolution (LR) models were still affected by the drainage data scale. This scale effect was due not only to the pipe routing process but also to changes in the effective impervious area, which could be limited by a scale threshold. The runoff flow and NPS pollution responded differently to changes in scale, primarily because of the difference between buildup and washoff and the more significant decrease in pollutant infiltration loss and the much greater increase of pollutant flooding loss while scaling up. Additionally, scale effects were also affected by the rainfall type. Sub-area routing between impervious and pervious areas could improve the LR model performances to an extent, and this approach is recommended to offset the influence of spatial resolution deterioration.
Keywords	data collection ; drainage ; model validation ; models ; nonpoint source pollution ; pollutants ; prediction ; rain ; runoff ; watersheds
Language	English
Dates of publication	2018-05
Size	p. 14799-14812.
Publishing place	Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Document type	Article
ZDB-ID	1178791-0
ISSN	1614-7499 ; 0944-1344
ISSN (online)	1614-7499
ISSN	0944-1344
DOI	10.1007/s11356-018-1377-8
Database	NAL-Catalogue (AGRICOLA)

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