Article ; Online: Development and Validation of a New Nomogram Model for Predicting Acute Ischemic Stroke in Elderly Patients with Non-Valvular Atrial Fibrillation: A Single-Center Cross-Sectional Study.
Clinical interventions in aging
2024 Volume 19, Page(s) 67–79
Abstract: Background and aims: Non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients face a 3-5 times greater risk of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) compared to those without NVAF. This study aims to establish a novel clinical prediction model for AIS in elderly patients ...
Abstract | Background and aims: Non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) patients face a 3-5 times greater risk of acute ischemic stroke (AIS) compared to those without NVAF. This study aims to establish a novel clinical prediction model for AIS in elderly patients with NVAF by incorporating relevant biomarker indicators. Methods: A total of 301 individuals diagnosed with NVAF were selected for this investigation at the Third Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University. Based on the presence of AIS, patients were categorized into two groups: the Stroke Cohort and the Non-Stroke Cohort. Predictor screening was performed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operation (LASSO) regression algorithm. The binary logistic regression equation was applied to fit the model, followed by internal validation using the bootstrap resampling method (1000 times). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration degree curve plots, and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) were generated, respectively. Finally, a nomogram was constructed to present the prediction model. Results: The final results of this study revealed that neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), red cell distribution width (RDW), lipoprotein(a) (Lp(a)), systolic pressure, history of stroke, hyperlipidemia were independent risk factors for AIS in elderly patients with NVAF ( Conclusion: NLR, RDW, Lp(a), SP, history of stroke, hyperlipidemia, and HDL-C emerge as independent prognostic factors for acute ischemic stroke in elderly patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. The predictive utility of the nomogram model may potentially surpass that of the CHA2DS2-VASc scoring system. |
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MeSH term(s) | Humans ; Aged ; Ischemic Stroke/complications ; Atrial Fibrillation/diagnosis ; Cross-Sectional Studies ; Nomograms ; Models, Statistical ; Prognosis ; Stroke/epidemiology ; Stroke/etiology ; Risk Factors ; Hyperlipidemias |
Language | English |
Publishing date | 2024-01-10 |
Publishing country | New Zealand |
Document type | Journal Article |
ZDB-ID | 2364924-0 |
ISSN | 1178-1998 ; 1176-9092 |
ISSN (online) | 1178-1998 |
ISSN | 1176-9092 |
DOI | 10.2147/CIA.S437065 |
Database | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
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