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Article ; Online: Estimation of the infection attack rate of mumps in an outbreak among college students using paired serology.

van Boven, Michiel / Backer, Jantien A / Veldhuijzen, Irene / Gomme, Justin / van Binnendijk, Rob / Kaaijk, Patricia

2024 Volume 46, Page(s) 100751

Abstract: Mumps virus is a highly transmissible pathogen that is effectively controlled in countries with high vaccination coverage. Nevertheless, outbreaks have occurred worldwide over the past decades in vaccinated populations. Here we analyse an outbreak of ... ...

Abstract	Mumps virus is a highly transmissible pathogen that is effectively controlled in countries with high vaccination coverage. Nevertheless, outbreaks have occurred worldwide over the past decades in vaccinated populations. Here we analyse an outbreak of mumps virus genotype G among college students in the Netherlands over the period 2009-2012 using paired serological data. To identify infections in the presence of preexisting antibodies we compared mumps specific serum IgG concentrations in two consecutive samples (n=746), whereby the first sample was taken when students started their study prior to the outbreaks, and the second sample was taken 2-5 years later. We fit a binary mixture model to the data. The two mixing distributions represent uninfected and infected classes. Throughout we assume that the infection probability increases with the ratio of antibody concentrations of the second to first sample. The estimated infection attack rate in this study is higher than reported earlier (0.095 versus 0.042). The analyses yield probabilistic classifications of participants, which are mostly quite precise owing to the high intraclass correlation of samples in uninfected participants (0.85, 95%CrI: 0.82-0.87). The estimated probability of infection increases with decreasing antibody concentration in the pre-outbreak sample, such that the probability of infection is 0.12 (95%CrI: 0.10-0.13) for the lowest quartile of the pre-outbreak samples and 0.056 (95%CrI: 0.044-0.068) for the highest quartile. We discuss the implications of these insights for the design of booster vaccination strategies.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Mumps/epidemiology ; Mumps/prevention & control ; Incidence ; Mumps virus/genetics ; Disease Outbreaks/prevention & control ; Students
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-03-01
Publishing country	Netherlands
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	2467993-8
ISSN	1878-0067 ; 1755-4365
ISSN (online)	1878-0067
ISSN	1755-4365
DOI	10.1016/j.epidem.2024.100751
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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Article ; Online: Wastewater-based reproduction numbers and projections of COVID-19 cases in three areas in Japan, November 2021 to December 2022.

Miyazawa, Shogo / Wong, Ting Sam / Ito, Genta / Iwamoto, Ryo / Watanabe, Kozo / van Boven, Michiel / Wallinga, Jacco / Miura, Fuminari

Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin

2024 Volume 29, Issue 8

Abstract: BackgroundWastewater surveillance has expanded globally as a means to monitor spread of infectious diseases. An inherent challenge is substantial noise and bias in wastewater data because of the sampling and quantification process, limiting the ... ...

Abstract	BackgroundWastewater surveillance has expanded globally as a means to monitor spread of infectious diseases. An inherent challenge is substantial noise and bias in wastewater data because of the sampling and quantification process, limiting the applicability of wastewater surveillance as a monitoring tool.AimTo present an analytical framework for capturing the growth trend of circulating infections from wastewater data and conducting scenario analyses to guide policy decisions.MethodsWe developed a mathematical model for translating the observed SARS-CoV-2 viral load in wastewater into effective reproduction numbers. We used an extended Kalman filter to infer underlying transmissions by smoothing out observational noise. We also illustrated the impact of different countermeasures such as expanded vaccinations and non-pharmaceutical interventions on the projected number of cases using three study areas in Japan during 2021-22 as an example.ResultsObserved notified cases were matched with the range of cases estimated by our approach with wastewater data only, across different study areas and virus quantification methods, especially when the disease prevalence was high. Estimated reproduction numbers derived from wastewater data were consistent with notification-based reproduction numbers. Our projections showed that a 10-20% increase in vaccination coverage or a 10% reduction in contact rate may suffice to initiate a declining trend in study areas.ConclusionOur study demonstrates how wastewater data can be used to track reproduction numbers and perform scenario modelling to inform policy decisions. The proposed framework complements conventional clinical surveillance, especially when reliable and timely epidemiological data are not available.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Basic Reproduction Number ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; Japan/epidemiology ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Wastewater ; Wastewater-Based Epidemiological Monitoring
Chemical Substances	Wastewater
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-03-26
Publishing country	Sweden
Document type	Journal Article
ZDB-ID	1338803-4
ISSN	1560-7917 ; 1025-496X
ISSN (online)	1560-7917
ISSN	1025-496X
DOI	10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2024.29.8.2300277
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Article ; Online: Changing epidemiology of parvovirus B19 in the Netherlands since 1990, including its re-emergence after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Russcher, Anne / van Boven, Michiel / Benincà, Elisa / Verweij, E J T Joanne / Molenaar-de Backer, Marijke W A / Zaaijer, Hans L / Vossen, Ann C T M / Kroes, Aloys C M

Scientific reports

2024 Volume 14, Issue 1, Page(s) 9630

Abstract: Parvovirus B19V (B19V) infection during pregnancy can be complicated by potentially life-threatening fetal hydrops, which can be managed by intrauterine transfusion (IUT). This study investigates the long-term temporal patterns in the epidemiology of ... ...

Abstract	Parvovirus B19V (B19V) infection during pregnancy can be complicated by potentially life-threatening fetal hydrops, which can be managed by intrauterine transfusion (IUT). This study investigates the long-term temporal patterns in the epidemiology of B19V and evaluates the impact on fetal hydrops, by combining data on B19V infections from the Dutch Sentinel Surveillance system in the period 1990 to 2023, Dutch blood banking data and hospital data on fetal hydrops. Using wavelet analysis, we identified annual epidemic cycles in the Netherlands in the period 1990-2019 and we identified superimposed multiannual cycles in the period 1990-2009. After 2009, no multiannual cycle could be identified, although the incidence fluctuated and correlates with number of IUT performed. As of 2020, weekly reports of B19V infection demonstrated a historically low incidence and B19V-DNA positive blood donors were nearly absent. From May 2020 to May 2023, no IUT for B19V-related hydrops was performed. In the spring of 2023, B19V infections re-emerged, reaching pre-pandemic epidemic levels. Due to the changes in B19V epidemiology over the last 30 years and the near-absence of B19V during the COVID-19 pandemic, the resulting low immunity levels may lead to rebound outbreaks. Alertness to severe complications such as fetal hydrops is warranted.
MeSH term(s)	Humans ; Netherlands/epidemiology ; COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/virology ; Parvovirus B19, Human ; Female ; Pregnancy ; Hydrops Fetalis/epidemiology ; Hydrops Fetalis/virology ; Incidence ; Parvoviridae Infections/epidemiology ; Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/epidemiology ; Pregnancy Complications, Infectious/virology ; SARS-CoV-2/isolation & purification ; Pandemics ; Erythema Infectiosum/epidemiology ; Blood Transfusion, Intrauterine ; Adult
Language	English
Publishing date	2024-04-26
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2615211-3
ISSN	2045-2322 ; 2045-2322
ISSN (online)	2045-2322
ISSN	2045-2322
DOI	10.1038/s41598-024-59582-7
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Article ; Online: Isolation and contact tracing can tip the scale to containment of COVID-19 in populations with social distancing

Kretzschmar, Mirjam E / Rozhnova, Ganna / van Boven, Michiel E

Abstract: Background: Novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has extended its range of transmission in all parts of the world, with substantial variation in rates of transmission and severity of associated disease. Many countries have implemented social distancing as a ... ...

Abstract	Background: Novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has extended its range of transmission in all parts of the world, with substantial variation in rates of transmission and severity of associated disease. Many countries have implemented social distancing as a measure to control further spread. Methods: We evaluate whether and under which conditions containment or slowing down COVID-19 epidemics are possible by isolation and contact tracing in settings with various levels of social distancing. We use a stochastic transmission model in which every person generates novel infections according to a probability distribution that is affected by the incubation period distribution (time from infection to symptoms), distribution of the latent period (time from infection to onset of infectiousness), and overall transmissibility. The model distinguishes between close contacts (e.g., within a household) and other contacts in the population. Social distancing affects the number of contacts outside but not within the household. Findings: The proportion of asymptomatic or unascertained cases has a strong impact on the controllability of the disease. If the proportion of asymptomatic infections is larger than 30%, contact tracing and isolation cannot achieve containment for an R0 of 2.5. Achieving containment by social distancing requires a reduction of numbers of non-household contacts by around 90%. Depending on the realized level of contact reduction, tracing and isolation of only household contacts, or of household and non-household contacts are necessary to reduce the effective reproduction number to below 1. A combination of social distancing with isolation and contact tracing leads to synergistic effects that increase the prospect of containment. Interpretation: Isolation and contact tracing can be an effective means to slow down epidemics, but only if the majority of cases are ascertained. In a situation with social distancing, contact tracing can act synergistically and tip the scale towards containment, and can therefore be a tool for controlling COVID-19 epidemics as part of an exit strategy from current lockdown measures.
Keywords	covid19
Publisher	MedRxiv; WHO
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1101/2020.03.10.20033738
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Effectiveness of isolation and contact tracing for containment and slowing down a COVID-19 epidemic: a modelling study

Kretzschmar, Mirjam E / Rozhnova, Ganna / van Boven, Michiel E

medRxiv

Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-03-13
Publisher	Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.1101/2020.03.10.20033738
Database	COVID19

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Article ; Online: Isolation and Contact Tracing Can Tip the Scale To Containment of COVID-19 In Populations with Social Distancing

Kretzschmar, Mirjam / Rozhnova, Ganna / van Boven, Michiel

SSRN Electronic Journal ; ISSN 1556-5068

2020

Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publisher	Elsevier BV
Publishing country	us
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.2139/ssrn.3562458
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Effectiveness of Isolation and Contact Tracing for Containment and Slowing Down a COVID-19 Epidemic

Kretzschmar, Mirjam / Rozhnova, Ganna / van Boven, Michiel

SSRN Electronic Journal ; ISSN 1556-5068

A Modelling Study

2020

Keywords	covid19
Language	English
Publisher	Elsevier BV
Publishing country	us
Document type	Article ; Online
DOI	10.2139/ssrn.3551343
Database	BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (life sciences selection)

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Article ; Online: Estimation of the Number of Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Associated Hospitalizations in Adults in the European Union.

Osei-Yeboah, Richard / Spreeuwenberg, Peter / Del Riccio, Marco / Fischer, Thea K / Egeskov-Cavling, Amanda Marie / Bøås, Håkon / van Boven, Michiel / Wang, Xin / Lehtonen, Toni / Bangert, Mathieu / Campbell, Harry / Paget, John

The Journal of infectious diseases

2023 Volume 228, Issue 11, Page(s) 1539–1548

Abstract: Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infections in adults that can result in hospitalizations. Estimating RSV-associated hospitalization is critical for planning RSV-related healthcare across Europe.!# ...

Abstract	Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infections in adults that can result in hospitalizations. Estimating RSV-associated hospitalization is critical for planning RSV-related healthcare across Europe. Methods: We gathered RSV-associated hospitalization estimates from the RSV Consortium in Europe (RESCEU) for adults in Denmark, England, Finland, Norway, Netherlands, and Scotland from 2006 to 2017. We extrapolated these estimates to 28 European Union (EU) countries using nearest-neighbor matching, multiple imputations, and 2 sets of 10 indicators. Results: On average, 158 229 (95% confidence interval [CI], 140 865-175 592) RSV-associated hospitalizations occur annually among adults in the EU (≥18 years); 92% of these hospitalizations occur in adults ≥65 years. Among 75-84 years, the annual average is estimated at 74 519 (95% CI, 69 923-79 115) at a rate of 2.24 (95% CI, 2.10-2.38) per 1000. Among ≥85 years, the annual average is estimated at 37 904 (95% CI, 32 444-43 363) at a rate of 2.99 (95% CI, 2.56-3.42). Conclusions: Our estimates of RSV-associated hospitalizations in adults are the first analysis integrating available data to provide the disease burden across the EU. Importantly, for a condition considered in the past to be primarily a disease of young children, the average annual hospitalization estimate in adults was lower but of a similar magnitude to the estimate in young children (0-4 years): 158 229 (95% CI, 140 865-175 592) versus 245 244 (95% CI, 224 688-265 799).
MeSH term(s)	Child ; Humans ; Adult ; Infant ; Child, Preschool ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections/epidemiology ; European Union ; Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human ; Respiratory Tract Infections ; Hospitalization
Language	English
Publishing date	2023-05-29
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	3019-3
ISSN	1537-6613 ; 0022-1899
ISSN (online)	1537-6613
ISSN	0022-1899
DOI	10.1093/infdis/jiad189
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Article ; Online: Variation in loss of immunity shapes influenza epidemics and the impact of vaccination.

Woolthuis, Rutger G / Wallinga, Jacco / van Boven, Michiel

BMC infectious diseases

2017 Volume 17, Issue 1, Page(s) 632

Abstract: Background: Protective antibody immunity against the influenza A virus wanes in 2-7 years due to antigenic drift of the virus' surface proteins. The duration of immune protection is highly variable because antigenic evolution of the virus is irregular. ... ...

Abstract	Background: Protective antibody immunity against the influenza A virus wanes in 2-7 years due to antigenic drift of the virus' surface proteins. The duration of immune protection is highly variable because antigenic evolution of the virus is irregular. Currently, the variable nature of the duration of immunity has had little attention in analyses of the impact of vaccination, including cost-effectiveness studies. Methods: We developed a range of mathematical transmission models to investigate the effect of variable duration of immunity on the size of seasonal epidemics. The models range from simple conceptual to more realistic, by distinguishing between infection- versus vaccination-induced immunity, by inclusion of primary vaccine failure, by assuming a leaky vaccine, and by the inclusion of age-dependent contact patterns. Results: We show that annual variation in the duration of immunity causes large variation in the size of epidemics, and affects the effectiveness of vaccination. Accumulation of susceptible individuals in one or more mild seasons results in a disproportionately large outbreak in a subsequent season. Importantly, variation in the duration of immunity increases the average infection attack rate when the vaccination coverage is around the outbreak threshold. Specifically, in a tailored age-stratified model with a realistic reproduction number (R Conclusions: The models illustrate that variation in the duration of immunity impacts the long-term effectiveness of vaccination, and that vaccine effectiveness cannot be judged for each year in isolation. Our findings have implications for vaccination strategies that aim to maximize the vaccination coverage while extending the age range of persons eligible for vaccination.
Language	English
Publishing date	2017-09-19
Publishing country	England
Document type	Journal Article
ISSN	1471-2334
ISSN (online)	1471-2334
DOI	10.1186/s12879-017-2716-y
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Article ; Online: Trade-off between local transmission and long-range dispersal drives infectious disease outbreak size in spatially structured populations.

Benincà, Elisa / Hagenaars, Thomas / Boender, Gert Jan / van de Kassteele, Jan / van Boven, Michiel

PLoS computational biology

2020 Volume 16, Issue 7, Page(s) e1008009

Abstract: Transmission of infectious diseases between immobile hosts (e.g., plants, farms) is strongly dependent on the spatial distribution of hosts and the distance-dependent probability of transmission. As the interplay between these factors is poorly ... ...

Abstract	Transmission of infectious diseases between immobile hosts (e.g., plants, farms) is strongly dependent on the spatial distribution of hosts and the distance-dependent probability of transmission. As the interplay between these factors is poorly understood, we use spatial process and transmission modelling to investigate how epidemic size is shaped by host clustering and spatial range of transmission. We find that for a given degree of clustering and individual-level infectivity, the probability that an epidemic occurs after an introduction is generally higher if transmission is predominantly local. However, local transmission also impedes transfer of the infection to new clusters. A consequence is that the total number of infections is maximal if the range of transmission is intermediate. In highly clustered populations, the infection dynamics is strongly determined by the probability of transmission between clusters of hosts, whereby local clusters act as multiplier of infection. We show that in such populations, a metapopulation model sometimes provides a good approximation of the total epidemic size, using probabilities of local extinction, the final size of infections in local clusters, and probabilities of cluster-to-cluster transmission. As a real-world example we analyse the case of avian influenza transmission between poultry farms in the Netherlands.
MeSH term(s)	Algorithms ; Animal Husbandry ; Animals ; Cluster Analysis ; Disease Outbreaks ; Disease Transmission, Infectious ; Farms ; Infectious Disease Medicine/methods ; Infectious Disease Medicine/trends ; Influenza in Birds/epidemiology ; Influenza in Birds/transmission ; Models, Biological ; Netherlands ; Normal Distribution ; Population Dynamics ; Poultry ; Probability ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Risk
Language	English
Publishing date	2020-07-06
Publishing country	United States
Document type	Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
ZDB-ID	2193340-6
ISSN	1553-7358 ; 1553-734X
ISSN (online)	1553-7358
ISSN	1553-734X
DOI	10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008009
Database	MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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