Artikel ; Online: Masks and distancing during COVID-19: a causal framework for imputing value to public-health interventions.
2021 Band 11, Heft 1, Seite(n) 5183
Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community developed predictive models to evaluate potential governmental interventions. However, the analysis of the effects these interventions had is less advanced. Here, we propose a data-driven framework ... ...
Abstract | During the COVID-19 pandemic, the scientific community developed predictive models to evaluate potential governmental interventions. However, the analysis of the effects these interventions had is less advanced. Here, we propose a data-driven framework to assess these effects retrospectively. We use a regularized regression to find a parsimonious model that fits the data with the least changes in the [Formula: see text] parameter. Then, we postulate each jump in [Formula: see text] as the effect of an intervention. Following the do-operator prescriptions, we simulate the counterfactual case by forcing [Formula: see text] to stay at the pre-jump value. We then attribute a value to the intervention from the difference between true evolution and simulated counterfactual. We show that the recommendation to use facemasks for all activities would reduce the number of cases by 200,000 ([Formula: see text] CI 190,000-210,000) in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New York State. The framework presented here might be used in any case where cause and effects are sparse in time. |
---|---|
Mesh-Begriff(e) | COVID-19/epidemiology ; COVID-19/prevention & control ; Humans ; Masks ; Models, Statistical ; Physical Distancing ; Retrospective Studies ; United States/epidemiology |
Sprache | Englisch |
Erscheinungsdatum | 2021-03-04 |
Erscheinungsland | England |
Dokumenttyp | Journal Article |
ZDB-ID | 2615211-3 |
ISSN | 2045-2322 ; 2045-2322 |
ISSN (online) | 2045-2322 |
ISSN | 2045-2322 |
DOI | 10.1038/s41598-021-84679-8 |
Datenquelle | MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE |
Zusatzmaterialien
Kategorien
Über subito bestellen
Dieser Service ist kostenpflichtig (siehe Lieferbedingungen von subito). Bestellungen, die einen Artikel nebst Supplementary Material umfassen, werden grundsätzlich wie mehrfache Bestellungen bearbeitet. Gebühren fallen in diesen Fällen für jede einzelne Bestellung an.