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  1. Artikel: Projektion der COVID-19-Epidemie in Deutschland.

    Donsimoni, Jean Roch / Glawion, René / Plachter, Bodo / Wälde, Klaus

    Wirtschaftsdienst (Hamburg, Germany : 1949)

    2020  Band 100, Heft 4, Seite(n) 272–276

    Abstract: The authors model the evolution of the number of confi rmed cases of COVID-19 in Germany. Their theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four physical states: healthy, sick, recovered or asymptomatic infected, and dead. Their ... ...

    Titelübersetzung Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany.
    Abstract The authors model the evolution of the number of confi rmed cases of COVID-19 in Germany. Their theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four physical states: healthy, sick, recovered or asymptomatic infected, and dead. Their quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals based on the most recent fi gures with the share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. They employ this framework to study the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. They also study the impact of public regulations. For all scenarios, they report the expected end of the COVID-19 epidemic.
    Schlagwörter covid19
    Sprache Deutsch
    Erscheinungsdatum 2020-04-22
    Erscheinungsland Germany
    Dokumenttyp English Abstract ; Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 202814-1
    ISSN 1613-978X ; 0043-6275
    ISSN (online) 1613-978X
    ISSN 0043-6275
    DOI 10.1007/s10273-020-2631-5
    Datenquelle MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  2. Artikel ; Online: Projektion der COVID-19-Epidemie in Deutschland

    Donsimoni, Jean Roch / Glawion, René / Plachter, Bodo / Wälde, Klaus

    Wirtschaftsdienst

    2020  Band 100, Heft 4, Seite(n) 272–276

    Schlagwörter Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous) ; covid19
    Sprache Deutsch
    Verlag Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Erscheinungsland us
    Dokumenttyp Artikel ; Online
    ZDB-ID 202814-1
    ISSN 1613-978X ; 0043-6275
    ISSN (online) 1613-978X
    ISSN 0043-6275
    DOI 10.1007/s10273-020-2631-5
    Datenquelle BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (Lebenswissenschaftliche Auswahl)

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  3. Artikel: Should Contact Bans Have Been Lifted More in Germany?: A Quantitative Prediction of Its Effects.

    Donsimoni, Jean Roch / Glawion, René / Plachter, Bodo / Wälde, Klaus / Weiser, Constantin

    CESifo economic studies

    2020  Band 66, Heft 2, Seite(n) 115–133

    Abstract: Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of Covid-19 if RSC had been upheld after 20 April. We ... ...

    Abstract Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of Covid-19 if RSC had been upheld after 20 April. We employ these findings and feed them into our theoretical model. We find that the peak of the number of sick individuals would have been reached already end of April. The number of sick individuals would have fallen below 1000 at the beginning of July. If restrictions had been lifted completely on April 20, the number of sick should have risen quickly again from around 27 April. A balance between economic and individual costs of RSC and public health objectives consists in lifting RSC for activities that have high economic benefits but low health costs. In the absence of large-scale representative testing of CoV-2 infections, these activities can most easily be identified if federal states of Germany adopted exit strategies that
    Sprache Englisch
    Erscheinungsdatum 2020-07-03
    Erscheinungsland England
    Dokumenttyp Journal Article
    ZDB-ID 2108821-4
    ISSN 1612-7501 ; 1610-241X
    ISSN (online) 1612-7501
    ISSN 1610-241X
    DOI 10.1093/cesifo/ifaa004
    Datenquelle MEDical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System OnLINE

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  4. Artikel ; Online: Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? A quantitative prediction of its effects

    Jean Roch Donsimoni / René Glawion / Bodo Plachter / Constantin Weiser / Klaus Wälde

    Abstract: Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ ... ...

    Abstract Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC). We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany. We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of COVID19 if RSC were upheld after April 20. We employ these findings and feed them into our theoretical model. We find that the peak of the number of sick individuals would be reached already by mid-April. The number of sick individuals would fall below 1,000 at the beginning of July. When restrictions are lifted completely on April 20, the number of sick should rise quickly again from around April 27. A balance between economic and individual costs of RSC and public health objectives consists in lifting RSC for activities that have high economic benefits but low health costs. In the absence of large-scale representative testing of CoV-2 infections, these activities can most easily be identified if federal states of Germany adopted exit strategies that differ across states.
    Schlagwörter covid19
    Verlag medrxiv
    Dokumenttyp Artikel ; Online
    DOI 10.1101/2020.04.10.20060301
    Datenquelle COVID19

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  5. Artikel: Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany/ Projektion der COVID-19-Epidemie in Deutschland

    Donsimoni, Jean Roch / Glawion, René / Plachter, Bodo / Wälde, Klaus

    Wirtschaftsdienst

    Abstract: The authors model the evolution of the number of confi rmed cases of COVID-19 in Germany. Their theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four physical states: healthy, sick, recovered or asymptomatic infected, and dead. Their ... ...

    Abstract The authors model the evolution of the number of confi rmed cases of COVID-19 in Germany. Their theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four physical states: healthy, sick, recovered or asymptomatic infected, and dead. Their quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals based on the most recent fi gures with the share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. They employ this framework to study the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. They also study the impact of public regulations. For all scenarios, they report the expected end of the COVID-19 epidemic.
    Schlagwörter covid19
    Verlag WHO
    Dokumenttyp Artikel
    Anmerkung WHO #Covidence: #135407
    Datenquelle COVID19

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  6. Buch ; Artikel ; Online: Projecting the Spread of COVID19 for Germany

    Donsimoni, Jean Roch / Glawion, René / Plachter, Bodo / Wälde, Klaus

    2020  

    Abstract: We model the evolution of the number of individuals that are reported to be sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or ... ...

    Abstract We model the evolution of the number of individuals that are reported to be sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or after infection but without symptoms and dead. Our quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. We employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. We also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios we report the expected end of the CoV-2 epidemic.
    Schlagwörter ddc:330 ; I18 ; E17 ; C63 ; Corona ; COVID19 ; SARS-CoV-2 ; spread of infection ; Markov model ; Germany ; projection ; covid19
    Sprache Englisch
    Verlag Munich: Center for Economic Studies and ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Erscheinungsland de
    Dokumenttyp Buch ; Artikel ; Online
    Datenquelle BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (Lebenswissenschaftliche Auswahl)

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  7. Artikel ; Online: Projecting the spread of COVID-19 for Germany

    Donsimoni, Jean Roch / Glawion, René / Plachter, Bodo / Wälde, Klaus

    German Economic Review

    2020  Band 21, Heft 2, Seite(n) 181–216

    Abstract: Abstract We model the evolution of the number of individuals reported sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or despite ... ...

    Abstract Abstract We model the evolution of the number of individuals reported sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or despite infection but without symptoms, and deceased. Our quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. We employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in Germany in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. We also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios we report the expected end date of the CoV-2 epidemic.
    Schlagwörter Economics and Econometrics ; covid19
    Verlag Walter de Gruyter GmbH
    Erscheinungsland de
    Dokumenttyp Artikel ; Online
    ZDB-ID 2008828-0
    ISSN 1468-0475 ; 1465-6485
    ISSN (online) 1468-0475
    ISSN 1465-6485
    DOI 10.1515/ger-2020-0031
    Datenquelle BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (Lebenswissenschaftliche Auswahl)

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  8. Artikel: Should Contact Bans Have Been Lifted More in Germany?

    Donsimoni, Jean Roch / Glawion, René Plachter Bodo / Wälde, Klaus / Weiser, Constantin

    CESifo Economic Studies

    Abstract: Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC) We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of Covid-19 if RSC had been upheld after 20 April We employ ...

    Abstract Many countries consider the lifting of restrictions of social contacts (RSC) We quantify the effects of RSC for Germany We initially employ a purely statistical approach to predicting prevalence of Covid-19 if RSC had been upheld after 20 April We employ these findings and feed them into our theoretical model We find that the peak of the number of sick individuals would have been reached already end of April The number of sick individuals would have fallen below 1000 at the beginning of July If restrictions had been lifted completely on April 20, the number of sick should have risen quickly again from around 27 April A balance between economic and individual costs of RSC and public health objectives consists in lifting RSC for activities that have high economic benefits but low health costs In the absence of large-scale representative testing of CoV-2 infections, these activities can most easily be identified if federal states of Germany adopted exit strategies that differ across states
    Schlagwörter covid19
    Verlag WHO
    Dokumenttyp Artikel
    Anmerkung WHO #Covidence: #632217
    Datenquelle COVID19

    Kategorien

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  9. Buch ; Artikel ; Online: Projecting the Spread of COVID-19 for Germany

    Donsimoni, Jean Roch / Glawion, René / Plachter, Bodo / Wälde, Klaus

    2020  

    Abstract: We model the evolution of the number of individuals that are reported to be sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or ... ...

    Abstract We model the evolution of the number of individuals that are reported to be sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or after infection but without symptoms and dead. Our quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. We employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. We also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios we report the expected end of the CoV-2 epidemic.
    Schlagwörter ddc:330 ; I18 ; E17 ; C63 ; Germany ; Markov model ; spread of infection ; SARS-CoV-2 ; COVID-19 ; Corona ; projection ; covid19
    Sprache Englisch
    Verlag Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)
    Erscheinungsland de
    Dokumenttyp Buch ; Artikel ; Online
    Datenquelle BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (Lebenswissenschaftliche Auswahl)

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  10. Artikel ; Online: Projektion der COVID-19-Epidemie in Deutschland

    Donsimoni, Jean Roch / Glawion, René / Plachter, Bodo / Wälde, Klaus

    2020  

    Abstract: Die COVID-19-Epidemie wird in Deutschland im optimistischen Szenario mindestens bis Juli 2020 dauern, im normalen Szenario bis August. Öffentliche Maßnahmen wie Kontaktverbote flachen den Anstieg der Zahl der Erkrankungen temporär ab und verlängern die ... ...

    Abstract Die COVID-19-Epidemie wird in Deutschland im optimistischen Szenario mindestens bis Juli 2020 dauern, im normalen Szenario bis August. Öffentliche Maßnahmen wie Kontaktverbote flachen den Anstieg der Zahl der Erkrankungen temporär ab und verlängern die Dauer der Epidemie. In der Spitze sind im optimistischen Szenario gleichzeitig bis zu 200.000 Menschen erkrankt, im normalen Szenario liegen die Werte um 1 Million. Langfristig werden im normalen Szenario 6 % der Bevölkerung (gemeldet) erkrankt gewesen sein.

    The authors model the evolution of the number of confi rmed cases of COVID-19 in Germany. Their theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four physical states: healthy, sick, recovered or asymptomatic infected, and dead. Their quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals based on the most recent fi gures with the share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. They employ this framework to study the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. They also study the impact of public regulations. For all scenarios, they report the expected end of the COVID-19 epidemic.
    Schlagwörter ddc:330 ; I18 ; E17 ; C63 ; covid19
    Sprache Deutsch
    Verlag Heidelberg: Springer
    Erscheinungsland de
    Dokumenttyp Artikel ; Online
    Datenquelle BASE - Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (Lebenswissenschaftliche Auswahl)

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